The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is closely monitoring two areas of potential tropical development that could bring significant rainfall to Florida and the Southeast U.S. coast. While the chances of these disturbances developing into tropical storms are relatively low, the heavy rain they could produce is a major concern for residents and visitors alike.
As of now, the NHC has designated an area of interest in the Gulf of Mexico, known as Invest 91L, with a 20% chance of development over the next two days. Another area off the Southeast coast is also being watched, although tropical development here is considered unlikely. Regardless of development, both systems could bring substantial rainfall to the region.
Potential Tracks and Impacts
The FOX Forecast Center is tracking two possible scenarios for the disturbance near Florida. The first scenario suggests that thunderstorms could become better organized but get trapped under a large area of high pressure, causing them to drift westward toward Louisiana early next week. The second, less likely scenario has the disturbance moving north along the Southeast coast, remaining weak and disorganized.
An area from Fort Myers to Florida’s Big Bend could see a large swath of 2–3 inches of rain starting Saturday and lasting through Tuesday. This rainfall could lead to localized flooding, especially in urban areas. Historically, most tropical systems that develop in July are homegrown threats meaning they form close to the American coastline. Currently, water temperatures in the Gulf and off the Southeast coast remain above average, providing fuel for these storms.
Atlantic Disturbance Faces Hostile Conditions
Meanwhile, the NHC is monitoring another area for potential tropical development in the Atlantic’s Main Development Region, several hundred miles off the coast of West Africa. However, tropical development here is unlikely over the next two days, with only a 20% chance of development at this time. The disturbance is expected to encounter a wall of hostile winds by the weekend, making it difficult for any organization to occur.
The FOX Forecast Center noted that if there are no organizational trends over the next couple of days, the odds of future development seem very slim. Strong winds, plumes of Saharan dust, and average water temperatures are creating a hostile environment for tropical development across much of the open Atlantic, contributing to a quiet start to the season.
Preparing for the Storm
Residents and visitors in Florida and along the Southeast coast should prepare for the possibility of heavy rainfall and potential flooding this weekend. It is essential to monitor local weather updates and have a plan in place for any outdoor events or travel plans that may be disrupted by the weather.
While Tropical Storm Arthur, which formed along the Texas coast on June 17, remains the year’s only named storm thus far, the next named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season would be Bertha. As we move further into hurricane season, it is crucial to stay informed and prepared for any potential tropical developments.
Stay tuned to FOX Weather for the latest updates on these developing weather systems and their potential impacts on the region.
