The National Weather Service (NWS) has been closely monitoring a weather system, designated as Invest 97W, which has been causing some concern among residents in the Pacific region. This disturbance, located south of Kwajalein, has sparked numerous inquiries and social media posts, prompting the NWS to provide clarity on its status and potential impact.
According to Landon Aydlett, a warning coordination meteorologist at the NWS, Invest 97W is currently rated as “sub-low” by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. This rating indicates that the system is not expected to develop into a typhoon, tropical storm, or even a tropical depression in the near future. Instead, it is classified as a tropical disturbance characterized by areas of showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds that may or may not include a surface circulation.
Understanding Invest 97W
Patrick Doll, the lead forecaster at the NWS, explained that it may take several days to determine the strength and track of Invest 97W. The system is currently generating showers, isolated thunderstorms, and areas of gusty winds across the Marshall Islands. However, the NWS emphasizes that there is no guarantee that a low-level circulation center will form, which is a crucial factor in the development of a tropical cyclone.
Aydlett noted that out of the more than 100 disturbances labeled as Invest Areas for tracking, only 20 to 40 actually develop into a tropical cyclone. He also highlighted that numerical forecast models often show some degree of development with weak disturbances like Invest 97W, but these long-range forecasts do not always materialize.
Comparing Invest 97W to Super Typhoon Bavi
Doll pointed out that the conditions for Invest 97W are “a little less favorable” compared to those that led to the formation of Super Typhoon Bavi. This means that while there is a possibility for Invest 97W to develop into a storm, it would have to overcome more challenges to do so. Aydlett advised the community to rely on NWS forecasts for the most accurate guidance on regional weather developments.
The NWS plays a crucial role in deciphering complex numerical models and providing the best-available forecasts to the public. Aydlett assured that if or when Invest 97W begins to organize and develop, the NWS will make it widely known through official channels.
Looking Ahead to the Typhoon Season
In June, the NWS anticipated four to seven tropical cyclones of storm-force or typhoon-force intensity. Aydlett mentioned in a July 4th briefing that Super Typhoon Sinlaku was the fourth tropical cyclone and Bavi is the ninth. He also noted that this year’s El Nino is “very strong,” suggesting a busy typhoon season ahead.
As the region continues to recover from recent storms, the NWS urges residents to focus on recovery efforts and to stay informed through official weather updates. The agency remains committed to providing timely and accurate information to ensure the safety and well-being of the community.
