The slowdown in US GDP
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the United States economy showed signs of a slowdown, with gross domestic product (GDP) increasing by 2.3% on a quarterly basis. This figure is lower than the 3.1% growth recorded in the previous quarter and is below analysts’ expectations, who expected an increase of 2.7%. This slowdown has raised questions about future economic prospects and the market’s ability to maintain a sustainable pace of growth
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Growth in domestic consumption
Despite the slowdown in GDP, domestic consumption accelerated, marking an increase of 4.2% compared to 3.7% in the previous quarter. This increase suggests that consumers are continuing to spend, thus supporting the economy. However, inflation increased, with the PCE price index coming in at 2.3%, up from 1.5% in the previous quarter. The PCE core index, which excludes food and energy goods, was +2.5%, in line with expectations and up from +2.2%% in the previous quarter
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Business impact and future forecasts
United Parcel Service (UPS) announced an expected drop in revenues for 2025, along with a significant reduction in volumes with its main customer. Despite a growing profit in the fourth quarter of 2024, the company decided to outsource SurePost products and restructure the US network. This led to a decline in the UPS stock in pre-market trading. The Eurozone is also preparing for a slowdown, with an expected growth of 0.9% on an annual basis, below forecasts. Shell, for its part, reported a 78% drop in profit in the fourth quarter, but maintained a solid overall financial performance for the year, announcing an increase in dividends and a 3.5 billion dollar buyback program
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