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Rising gas prices in Italy: what to expect in winter 2024

The current gas price environment

In the month of October 2023, wholesale gas prices in Italy registered a significant increase compared to the previous month. According to the Regulatory Authority for Energy Networks and Environment (Arera), the price of gas raw material for vulnerable customers in the “Protection Service” has reached 40.82 €/MWh. This increase is the result of a general increase in supply costs, which saw an increase of 5.3% compared to September, bringing the reference price to 116.77 euro cents
per cubic meter.

The consequences for consumers

For a typical family that consumes about 1,100 cubic meters of gas per year, this increase translates into an additional expense of about 64 euros on an annual basis. The total expenditure for gas, therefore, is around 1,284 euros, to which are added the costs for electricity, bringing the total expenditure to about 1,813 euros. This scenario is not at all reassuring, especially for the most vulnerable consumers, who are already facing economic difficulties. Marco Vignola, vice-president of the National Consumer Union, stressed that the increase in prices is terrible news, especially with the arrival of the thermal season
.

Future prospects and possible interventions

The forecasts for the coming months are not encouraging. As winter approaches, gas demand tends to grow, and this could lead to further increases in prices. According to Codacons, gas prices in October 2023 were 20.5% higher than in the same period of 2021, with an increase in expenditure that could increase further. Gabriele Melluso, president of Assoutenti, highlighted that October’s tariffs are already 10% higher than last year, suggesting that the government should intervene to guarantee more competitive prices for vulnerable consumers
.

Conclusions and recommendations

In a context of growing economic uncertainty and rising energy costs, it is essential that the competent authorities closely monitor the trend in gas prices and take appropriate measures to protect the weakest consumers. Transparency in tariff policies and the implementation of strategies to contain supply costs are essential to ensure equitable access to energy for all Italians
.

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