While there are 2-3 reasons to believe that Ethereum reached last year’s bottom on Saturday, the evidence is not definitive. Our Bitcoin analysis suggests that Bitcoin will likely start rising in the fourth quarter of this year. Ethereum should also start to rise then. Why the fourth quarter?
- We expect inflation to start easing by the fourth quarter
- Crude oil prices are expected to stabilize or start falling by the fourth quarter
- It is likely that any Alts or Crypto that may fail has failed by then.
Basically, we will have passed all the bad news
Is it a good time to buy Ethereum? Can it get worse?
Ethereum has lost almost 70% of its value since the 2021 TA. ETH has started to fall since the day US inflation breached 6%. But with the Fed raising rates twice in 4 weeks, the chances of inflation continuing to remain high have decreased. Therefore, the probability of Ethereum crashing by another 30-50% is lower than that of 4 weeks ago.
Is it a good time to buy Ethereum? Ethereum’s track record
Ethereum in its current Avatar has produced positive returns in 3 of the last 6 years. All the years of failure have been tied to the Fed’s reduction in the size of its balance sheet.
Is it a good time to buy Ethereum? Conclusions
- There is a high probability that Ethereum will fall further as there is still no visibility on inflation. It could also decline if some assets related to cryptocurrencies or cryptocurrencies collapse in the coming weeks.
- Unlike BTC, Ethereum has a proven track record of success over the past 6 years and is much more susceptible to external factors
- It makes no sense to invest now, but if necessary, probably in manageable volumes since the above risks remain
