In May 2022, the collapse of the Terra Foundation’s UST stablecoin brought Terra Luna from nearly 100 dollars to less than 1 dollar. Since then, Terra Luna has been rebranded as Luna Classic (LUNC) and managed by the LUNC community. The community is working to push the price of Luna Classic beyond 1 dollar, but the first challenge will be to bring the price to 1 cent
.
Table of Contents:
Luna Classic: buy or sell?
Trader sentiment
- Buy: 83%
- Selling: 17%
Recent statistics show a prevalence of positive sentiment among traders:
- June 18: +80%
- June 20: +94%
- June 22: +86%
- June 25: +80%
- June 28: +74%
Recent Disputes and Proposals
Allegations of theft in the Terra Classic community
The Terra Classic community has accused Karak, backed by Coinbase, of embezzling 200 million USTC. Karak’s co-founder, Raouf Ben-Har, has been accused of appropriating 8 million dollars in cryptoassets. Victor Cheng, CSO of Karak Network, clarified that no user funds were mismanaged, attributing the situation to the sale of UST by
the Terra Foundation.
Rejection of the plan to merge with LUNA
The Terra Luna Classic community rejected proposal 12116, which aimed to incorporate Luna V2 validators into the Luna Classic community, expanding the set of validators from 100 to 130. The proposal was rejected with only 30.59% of votes in favor and 46.17% of votes
against.
Luna Classic burn stats
- Total LUNC burned (as of 13 May 2022): 123.79 billion
- LUNC burned on-chain: 52.73 billion (43% of the total)
Analysis: Will Luna Classic hit 1 dollar?
Unlikely scenario
To reach 1 dollar, LUNC would need to increase 12,299 times. At 1 dollar, LUNC’s market capitalization would be around 5.48 trillion dollars. Considering an annual growth of 25%, it would take about 43 years to reach 1 dollar
.
Analyzing the trend of Bitcoin and Ethereum, which grew 1400 times in 10 years and 166 times in 6 years respectively, it is clear that LUNC operates in a more competitive environment, with more than 50 tokens with a market capitalization of one billion dollars.
Luna Classic’s aggregated price prediction for 2030 is $0.0021, significantly lower than the $1 target.
Comparison with Apple
Luna Classic is not an innovator like Apple nor are its services consumed by billions of people. Luna Classic is highly unlikely to reach a market capitalization of 5.8 trillion dollars
.
Long-term forecasts
No one can accurately predict the price of a token for the next 41 years. In addition, it’s unlikely that a token or stock will grow by 25% every year for that long. Considering the factors of growth, market capitalization and time, Luna Classic will not reach 1 dollar
.
90% burn scenario
If 90% of the tokens were burned, LUNC would have to increase 5556 times to reach 1 dollar. In this case, Luna Classic’s market capitalization would be 580 billion dollars. Even with an annual growth of 25%, it would take 39 years to reach 1 dollar. Therefore, even in this scenario, Luna Classic will hardly reach 1 dollar
.
Will Luna Classic reach 1 cent?
Moderate possibilities
For LUNC to reach 1 cent, it should increase 122 times. At 1 cent, Luna Classic’s market capitalization would be 54.9 billion dollars. With an annual growth of 25%, it would take about 22 years to reach 1
cent.
The aggregated forecast for 2030 is 0.2 cents, which makes it possible to reach 1 cent with a significant token burn.
Influencing factors and barriers
Price trigger
LUNC’s success depends on executing its development plans, which include infrastructure and technological improvements. This could increase demand for Luna Classic tokens. In addition, reducing supply by burning tokens is crucial
.
Risks and concerns
Luna Classic has no defined leadership structure, which can complicate its survival. In addition, the community has faced internal problems and attempts at fraud. The lack of a clear vision for LUNC’s future and the competition with other major players such as ETH and XRP represent additional obstacles
.
Community and Development
The community focused primarily on Luna Classic’s burn fee rather than the overall direction of the project. The lack of innovation and the need to attract dApp developers and creators represent
significant challenges.
With the current momentum, Luna Classic is unlikely to reach 1 cent in 2024. However, LUNC is more likely to hit 1 cent in the next few years, possibly even before Shiba Inu. With an annual growth of 50%, Luna Classic could reach 1 cent in the next 11 years
.
