The zinc market has experienced significant fluctuations, especially in recent months, as it faces various economic pressures. Following a downturn, zinc prices have stabilized, closing the year nearly at their initial levels. This metal, essential in the production of galvanized steel, is heavily influenced by the health of the housing and manufacturing sectors, both of which have been under strain from rising inflation and interest rates.
Additionally, shifting U.S.
trade policies have created uncertainty among investors, leading to reduced interest in real estate and a marked decline in consumer spending. Understanding the current trends and forecasts for zinc is critical in navigating this complex market.
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Zinc pricing trends for 2026
At the start of 2026, zinc was priced at approximately US$2,927 per metric ton, showing minimal change as the year progressed. However, stability was short-lived, as the market faced a downturn in April, primarily due to global economic conditions and political uncertainty. By mid-April, prices had fallen to a low of US$2,562.
Despite these challenges, zinc prices rebounded towards the year’s end, closing at US$3,088 on December 29. This recovery indicates a resilient market, even amid ongoing economic concerns.
Key factors impacting zinc prices
The sharp decline in zinc prices during April can be attributed to U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs, which sent shockwaves through the base metals sector. Analysts expressed concerns that these tariffs could trigger a recession, negatively impacting consumer purchasing power in crucial sectors like housing and automotive.
While fears of a significant recession have lessened as trade policies were revised, uncertainty remains. The U.S. housing market has shown signs of stagnation, with new housing starts slowing and a notable surplus of unsold homes accumulating. Meanwhile, the Chinese real estate market, already weakened by the collapse of major developers like Evergrande, continues to face severe challenges, further dampening global zinc demand.
Market expectations for zinc in 2026
Looking ahead, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) forecasts a persistent oversupply of zinc in 2026, with demand growth expected to remain modest. The group anticipates a slight increase in global refined zinc demand, projected to reach 13.86 million metric tons. However, anticipated growth in demand from China is expected to plateau due to ongoing troubles in its real estate sector.
In the U.S., the housing market is projected to face headwinds, as potential buyers grapple with high home prices and elevated mortgage rates. Nevertheless, recent policy proposals from the Trump administration may provide a much-needed boost to the sector, potentially increasing downstream demand for zinc.
Production forecasts and market dynamics
On the supply side, the ILZSG predicts that zinc mine production will see a notable increase in 2026, with total output expected to rise by 2.4 percent to approximately 12.8 million metric tons. This increase will largely stem from enhanced production at existing mines in several countries, including Brazil, Australia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Furthermore, new mines, such as the Almina-Minas Aljustrel mine in Portugal and Bunker Hill Mining’s project in Idaho, are set to contribute to the growing supply. With increased availability of refined zinc, the market is expected to experience a surplus, estimated at 271,000 metric tons in 2026.
Price predictions for zinc in 2026
Additionally, shifting U.S. trade policies have created uncertainty among investors, leading to reduced interest in real estate and a marked decline in consumer spending. Understanding the current trends and forecasts for zinc is critical in navigating this complex market.0
Additionally, shifting U.S. trade policies have created uncertainty among investors, leading to reduced interest in real estate and a marked decline in consumer spending. Understanding the current trends and forecasts for zinc is critical in navigating this complex market.1
Additionally, shifting U.S. trade policies have created uncertainty among investors, leading to reduced interest in real estate and a marked decline in consumer spending. Understanding the current trends and forecasts for zinc is critical in navigating this complex market.2