The zinc market has experienced significant fluctuations over the past few years, particularly in 2026. Understanding the factors that influence zinc pricing is critical for investors and stakeholders in related industries. This article delves into the expected trends and forecasts for zinc, providing valuable insights for those navigating this complex market.
Zinc, primarily used in the production of galvanized steel, has seen its demand closely tied to the housing and manufacturing sectors. Economic pressures, such as high inflation and rising interest rates, have constrained these sectors, impacting zinc prices significantly.
Price movements in 2026
The year 2026 began with a relatively stable zinc price of approximately US$2,927 per metric ton. However, by the second quarter, a sharp decline was noted, culminating in a low of US$2,562 in April. This drop was largely attributed to the broader base metals market responding to changes in U.S. trade policies, particularly the tariffs introduced by the Trump administration.
Despite the initial downturn, zinc prices rebounded, closing the year at around US$3,088. Throughout the latter half of 2026, prices saw a steady increase, indicating a recovery in market sentiment and demand dynamics.
Market influences in 2026
Several key factors contributed to the fluctuations in zinc prices during 2026. Initially, the announcement of tariffs created a wave of uncertainty, leading to predictions of a potential recession that could dampen consumer spending on essential goods, including housing and vehicles. Since these sectors are significant consumers of galvanized steel, the repercussions were felt throughout the zinc market.
Additionally, the housing market in the U.S. faced challenges due to affordability issues, resulting in stagnation of new housing starts. This situation mirrored the problems seen in China’s real estate sector, which has been grappling with a downturn. Reports indicated a concerning drop in sales among top developers in China, further influencing the global zinc supply and demand balance.
What to expect in 2026
Looking ahead, the zinc market is expected to experience an oversupply situation as production increases while demand growth remains modest. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) forecasts a surplus of 271,000 metric tons in 2026. This projection comes amid an anticipated rise in global refined zinc demand by 1 percent, reaching 13.86 million metric tons.
China, a significant player in the zinc market, is predicted to maintain flat demand in 2026 as its real estate sector continues to struggle. In contrast, the European market is expected to show some growth, driven by a recovery in demand.
Production increases
The ILZSG anticipates a robust increase in zinc mine supply by approximately 2.4 percent, totaling 12.8 million metric tons. Factors contributing to this boost include enhanced productivity from existing mining operations across regions such as Europe, Australia, and South America.
New mines coming online, including the Almina-Minas Aljustrel mine in Portugal and the Bunker Hill Mining project in Idaho, are also set to contribute to the increased supply. As refined zinc production is projected to rise similarly, the overall supply situation may lead to lower prices as the market adjusts to these changes.
Pricing outlook for 2026
Zinc, primarily used in the production of galvanized steel, has seen its demand closely tied to the housing and manufacturing sectors. Economic pressures, such as high inflation and rising interest rates, have constrained these sectors, impacting zinc prices significantly.0
Zinc, primarily used in the production of galvanized steel, has seen its demand closely tied to the housing and manufacturing sectors. Economic pressures, such as high inflation and rising interest rates, have constrained these sectors, impacting zinc prices significantly.1
Zinc, primarily used in the production of galvanized steel, has seen its demand closely tied to the housing and manufacturing sectors. Economic pressures, such as high inflation and rising interest rates, have constrained these sectors, impacting zinc prices significantly.2