A sign of growth: the October PMI index
In October 2023, the S&P Global PMI composite index of the United States showed an increase of 0.3 points, reaching a value of 54.3. This figure is particularly significant since values above 50 indicate an expansion of economic activity. Despite a third consecutive month of decline in industrial production, the American economy continues to show signs of resilience, supported by robust demand in the services sector. Growth expectations have rebounded, reaching the highest level in the last two and a half years, which suggests a climate of confidence among companies
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Output expectations and investor confidence
An interesting aspect that emerged from the October data is the 8-point increase in the measure of output expectations for the coming year. This jump represents the highest level since May 2022 and indicates that both service providers and manufacturers are optimistic about an increase in business spending, especially after the November elections. Investor confidence is crucial for the future of the economy, as it stimulates investment and growth. Companies, in fact, seem to be preparing for an increase in demand, which could translate into further economic development
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Inflation and input costs: an improving situation
Another element to consider is the trend in inflation. Although input costs remain high, S&P Global’s composite measure of the prices received has fallen to its lowest point in four years. This is a positive sign for businesses, as lower costs can translate into higher profit margins. The manufacturing PMI recorded an increase from 47.3 to 47.8 points, while the services indicator accelerated from 54.0 to 54.3 points, both higher than expected. These data suggest that, despite the challenges, the American economy is finding its way to a sustainable recovery
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