The current inflation environment in the United States
Inflation in the United States showed signs of stability, with the core PCE index registering an increase of 0.3% in September, the most significant since April. This index, which excludes food and energy goods due to their volatility, is considered one of the main indicators for measuring inflation by the Federal Reserve. With an annual increase of 2.7%, the index reflects a changing economic situation, where consumers continue to spend despite global uncertainties
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The Federal Reserve’s expectations
The Federal Reserve has as its primary objective to keep inflation around 2%. However, recent data show that overall inflation stands at 2.1%, the lowest level since the beginning of 2021. This scenario could influence the Fed’s future interest rate decisions. Inflation that remains below the target could push the central bank to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy, thus encouraging economic growth
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Implications for the market and consumers
Changes in inflation rates have a direct impact on consumers and businesses. Lower inflation can lead to lower interest rates, making loans and mortgages more affordable. However, if inflation were to exceed expectations, this could lead to higher interest rates, with negative consequences for consumer spending and business investment.
Companies, such as Intesa Sanpaolo, are already revising their profit forecasts in response to these changes, with earnings expectations for next year rising to €9 billion.
Conclusions and future prospects
In summary, the trend of inflation in the United States is a crucial issue that deserves attention. With the PCE core index growing and economic forecasts that adapt to a constantly changing environment, it is essential to monitor how these factors will influence Federal Reserve decisions and, consequently, the global economy. The coming months will be decisive for understanding if inflation will remain under control or if there will be surprises that could alter the
current economic landscape.