The analysis of polls and expectations
In recent days, the election polls had shown a slight recovery of the Democratic candidate, but as we have learned, the polls do not always reflect reality. Trump’s victory was overwhelming, and this led to an immediate impact on financial markets. Markets often react impulsively to political news, and Trump’s recent victory is no exception. With strong support from his base, Trump has been able to capitalize on issues such as the reduction of taxes, the increase in tariffs and the control of immigration, which have a direct impact on
the economy.
Financial market reactions
Immediately after the victory was announced, the American stock market registered an increase of about 2%. This rise was accompanied by an appreciation of the dollar against all currencies, with the euro falling by 1.8%. The Treasury curve showed a ‘steepening’ movement, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising by 15 basis points, to around 4.45%. These changes indicate growing investor confidence in the American economy, but also a certain amount of caution regarding the impact of Trump’s policies.
The consequences for the European and global economy
On the contrary, international markets reacted less positively. The Chinese stock market registered a decline of around 3%, while Europe showed a more moderate response, with cyclical and banking sectors driving the rise. However, concern for the European economy is palpable, with estimates suggesting a possible decrease in European GDP of up to 1% due to Trump’s policies. Cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, saw a dramatic increase of 7.5%, while gold showed a slight weakness, falling by 0.7%. This scenario highlights how markets are trying to adapt quickly to new political dynamics
.
Future Perspectives and Final Thoughts
Now, the American economy will have to demonstrate its resilience and the strength highlighted in the latest data. It will be crucial to monitor the impact of the Fed’s monetary policies, which could be affected by Trump’s new fiscal and trade measures. As the stock markets celebrate, it’s important not to fall into the trap of FOMO (fear of being left out) and to consider short-term movements with caution. History teaches us that markets can adapt to any situation, but uncertainty remains a key factor to consider
.