The economic context of the eurozone
In recent months, the eurozone economy has shown signs of stagnation, as evidenced by the October PMI data. According to the survey, economic activity fell slightly for the second consecutive month, with the PMI services index falling to 51.2, missing expectations of 51.5. This scenario suggests that economic growth is slowing down, creating concerns among analysts and policymakers
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Analysis of SME data: services and manufacturing
The manufacturing PMI, although slightly recovering, stands at 45.9, a figure that indicates a contraction in the sector. This is in contrast to the services PMI, which has shown some resilience, but not sufficient to compensate for the overall decline. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, commented that the eurozone is in a stalemate, with the economy showing signs of contracting. Inflationary pressures in the service sector, due to rising costs and salaries, are negatively affecting companies,
making a sustainable recovery difficult.
The implications for the European Central Bank
The recent statistics come as a surprise to the European Central Bank (ECB), which may need to review its monetary strategies. With inflation in the services sector remaining high, the ECB is likely to opt for a smaller interest rate cut than originally expected. Experts suggest that a drop of just 25 basis points may be more realistic than the 50 anticipated. This decision will have a significant impact on future economic policies and on the stability of the eurozone
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