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Slow in retail sales in China: analysis and prospects

Declining retail sales

In November 2023, China experienced a significant slowdown in retail sales growth. According to data provided by the National Statistics Office (NBS), sales showed an increase of 3% year-on-year, a figure that represents a decrease from 4.8% in October. This result is below analysts’ expectations, who had expected an increase of 5%. The country’s economic difficulties, including the crisis in the real estate sector and commercial tensions with the United States and the European Union, continue to negatively affect consumer confidence and, consequently, consumption
.

Factors that influence consumption

The world’s second largest economy is facing significant challenges. Weak confidence on the part of families and businesses is one of the main factors contributing to this slowdown. The uncertainties related to the global economic situation and trade policies have led to a decrease in retail spending. In addition, the real estate sector, which has historically represented a growth engine for the Chinese economy, is going through a profound crisis, further aggravating the situation. Analysts warn that without decisive government intervention, consumption could continue to
stagnate.

Growing industrial production

Despite the decline in retail sales, November saw a slight improvement in industrial production. The production index grew by 5.4% on a trend basis, exceeding analysts’ expectations, who expected an increase similar to that of the previous month. This increase, although modest, represents a positive sign for the Chinese economy, suggesting that some sectors are starting to recover. On a monthly basis, industrial production showed an increase of 0.4% compared to October, indicating a possible stabilization of production dynamics
.

In conclusion, while retail sales in China show signs of slowing down, industrial production offers a note of optimism. Market observers will continue to closely monitor these developments, as they could have significant repercussions on the country’s economic growth in the coming months
.

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