Table of Contents:
Introduction to the Italian economic situation
In recent months, Italy has shown signs of economic recovery, according to data provided by ConfCommercio. Despite an environment characterized by uncertainties and contradictions, growth indicators seem to prevail over those of contraction. This article analyzes recent economic developments and the outlook for 2025, with particular attention to consumption and GDP
.
Growth and consumption indicators
According to the January Economic Outlook, the trend rate of consumption is expected to decrease slightly to 1.2%, but with a cyclical increase of 0.3% compared to the previous month.
The ConfCommercio Consumer Index registered an increase in both November and December, with a positive monthly change of 0.2%. These data suggest a moderate but significant recovery, which could promote sustainable long-term growth
.
Analysis of GDP and expenses
Italian GDP showed moderate growth, with an increase of 0.1% in November, after an acceleration in October. Communication and mobility expenses registered the most significant increases, of 8.2% and 2.8%, respectively. Household goods and services also contributed to the recovery, albeit with more moderate increases. However, there is no shortage of critical issues: the clothing and footwear sector saw a modest increase, while sales of furniture and furnishing items fell by 2.0%
.
Inflation and future prospects
ConfCommercio expects a 0.3% economic increase in the consumer price index for January, with an annual growth of 1.2%. Despite tensions in the energy sector, inflation is expected to remain under control, with an average of 1% in 2024 and an expected increase to 1.5% in 2025. The stabilization of inflation could help to strengthen household confidence, encouraging a gradual recovery
in demand.
Conclusions and recommendations
2025 opens with significant challenges, including rising energy prices and fears of tariffs that could affect exports. However, the fall in interest rates and the implementation of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR) could provide crucial support for economic growth. It is crucial to closely monitor these developments to ensure a sustainable and lasting recovery
.
