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Ryanair revises passenger growth forecasts downwards

Ryanair and delivery delays

Ryanair Holdings, the Irish low-cost airline, has announced a revision of its growth forecasts for next year, reducing the passenger target from 215 million to 210 million for the 2025-26 fiscal year. This change was largely influenced by delays in aircraft deliveries by Boeing, the company’s main supplier. The situation is aggravated by an ongoing strike at the aircraft manufacturer, which has led to a delay in the delivery of nine aircraft scheduled for the third
fiscal quarter.

Impact on financial results

In the second quarter, Ryanair recorded a net profit of €1.43 billion, a decrease of 6% compared to the same period of the previous year. Average rates fell by 7% to €61. The airline warned that fares in the third fiscal quarter will be ‘modestly lower’ compared to last year, suggesting the need to stimulate demand to maintain passenger volumes. Despite the difficulties, Ryanair continues to aim for a total of 198-200 million passengers for the 2024-25
fiscal year.

Future prospects and market reactions

The airline also warned that it may run out of 10 planes for the next peak summer season, a factor that could further affect its operations. Ryanair shares fell by 5.5% this year, in contrast to a 38% decline for Wizz Air and a 2% gain for EasyJet. Despite these challenges, the board of directors announced an interim dividend of €0.223 per share, expected to be paid early next year, signaling some confidence in the
company’s resilience.

The context of the European air market

Ryanair is confirmed as the largest low-cost carrier in Europe and the first among the main low-cost airlines to report profits for the quarter. The company is facing a changing market environment, with consumers showing signs of increased confidence thanks to lower interest rates. However, the need to adapt to delays and operational challenges remains a priority to ensure growth and competitiveness in the European airline sector
.

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