Table of Contents:
Increase in the United States trade deficit
In December, the United States trade deficit increased significantly, exceeding analysts’ expectations. According to preliminary data provided by the Department of Commerce, the deficit increased by 18% compared to the previous month, reaching 112.1 billion dollars. Initial estimates predicted a deficit of 105.5 billion dollars, highlighting a
significant difference.
Exports and imports: a contrasting picture
This preliminary analysis focuses exclusively on goods, revealing a drop in exports, which amounted to 167.5 billion dollars, a decrease of 7.8 billion compared to November.
On the contrary, imports showed an increase, reaching 289.6 billion dollars, an increase of 10.8 billion compared to the previous month. This imbalance between imports and exports raises questions about the current economic dynamics and the competitiveness of the US market
.
Implications for the global economy
The German government recently revised downward its economic growth estimates for 2025, bringing them to 0.3% compared to the previously estimated 1.1%. This reflects a period of stagnation that began in 2018, compounded by two years of recession. Such developments in Europe could also have repercussions on the US economy, considering the interconnection of
global markets.
Trend in mortgage applications in the United States
In a context of economic uncertainty, mortgage applications in the United States registered a 2% drop in the week to January 24, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA). This decrease follows a slight increase of 0.1 percent from the previous week. Refinance requests fell by 6.7%, while new applications saw a decrease of 0.4%. Thirty-year mortgage rates remain stable at 7.02%, suggesting some stability in the housing market, despite fluctuations in demand
.
The growth of the money supply and the policies of the Bank of Sweden
In December, the growth of the M3 money supply declined to 3.5% compared to 3.8% in November. The M1 aggregate showed an increase, while loans to families and businesses show signs of growth. In response to a drop in inflation and a weak economy, the Bank of Sweden reduced its reference rate by a quarter of a point, bringing it to 2.25%. This decision aims to limit the risk of excessive inflation, reflecting central banks’ caution in the face of an uncertain economic environment
.
