The current interest rate environment
On, the European Central Bank (ECB) could announce a further cut in interest rates, an event that could have a significant impact on Italian families that have access to variable rate mortgages. According to estimates by Facile.it and Mutui.it, a reduction of 25 basis points could lead to a decrease in the monthly installment of a standard mortgage, from 666 euros to 649 euros.
This savings of about 17 euros per month represents a relief for many Italians, especially in a period of economic uncertainty
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The forecasts for 2025
The ECB has already made four rate cuts in 2024 and seems intent on continuing on this path also in 2025. Christine Lagarde, president of the ECB, said that the pace of the cuts will depend on the evolution of economic data, but confirmed that the institute is ready to intervene with larger measures if necessary. If the forecasts come true, the 3-month Euribor could fall to 2.22% by June 2025, with a possible further drop below 2.10% by the end of the year. This scenario could lead the installment of a standard mortgage to fall to 629 euros in the first half and to about 620 euros by December 2025, generating annual savings of about 50 euros compared to the current amounts
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Fixed-rate vs. variable-rate mortgages
Currently, fixed rates are more advantageous than variable rates, although the difference is narrowing. The best offers for a fixed-rate mortgage start at a TAN of 2.48%, while for variable rates it starts at a TAN of 3.45%. Facile.it experts recommend considering fixed-rate offers, as they offer greater stability and predictability. However, it is important to keep in mind that in the future it will be possible to evaluate the subrogation in the event that market conditions change significantly
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