Table of Contents:
The context of European stock exchanges
European stock exchanges recorded a positive session, with the exception of Paris, which fell sharply due to the collapse of LVMH, a luxury giant. At Piazza Affari, the Ftse Mib closed 0.6% higher, reaching 36,371 points. Among the outstanding titles, Iveco gained 6%, followed by Prysmian with an increase of 2.9% and Bper with 2.7%.
In contrast, Diasorin saw a decrease of 2.6%, Campari by 2.1% and Azimut by 1.9%.
Expectations for the Fed and the ECB meetings
The market is waiting for the meetings of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. This evening, the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged, but President Powell could provide crucial guidance regarding inflation. Tomorrow, the ECB will meet and a possible cut in the cost of money by 25 basis points is expected. These decisions could have a significant impact on financial markets and the European economy.
Focus on quarterly reports and economic data
This evening, attention will also be paid to the quarterly results of companies such as Tesla, Meta and Microsoft, which are under observation after the recent crash in technology stocks. Macroeconomic data were rather limited, but Spanish GDP exceeded expectations with an increase of 0.8%, while in Italy there was an increase in confidence between businesses and consumers. In the coming days, data on the GDP of the eurozone and the United States are expected to be published, as well as information on German inflation and the core US PCE
.
Trend in bond and commodity markets
In the bond market, the Btp-Bund spread stabilized at 108 basis points, with the Italian bond at 3.66% and the German benchmark at 2.57%. As far as commodities are concerned, Brent oil fell to 76.1 dollars per barrel, influenced by the increase in US inventories. Gold, on the other hand, remains just above 2,750 dollars an ounce.
In the currency market, the euro/dollar fell to 1.0415, while the dollar/yen reached 155.1.
Situation of cryptocurrencies and trade balance
In the cryptocurrency world, Bitcoin has fallen below 102,000 dollars. In addition, the US trade deficit showed a significant increase in December, exceeding analysts’ forecasts with an increase of 18% compared to the previous month, reaching 112.1 billion dollars. This was accompanied by a decline in exports and an increase in imports
.
Economic forecasts and interest rates
The German government has revised downward its economic growth estimates for 2025, bringing them to 0.3% compared to the previously estimated 1.1%, reflecting a period of stagnation that began in 2018. In the United States, mortgage applications fell by 2% in the week to January 24, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA). Thirty-year mortgage rates remain stable at 7.02%. Finally, the growth of the M3 money supply decreased to 3.5% compared to 3.8% in November, while loans to families and businesses show signs of
growth.
