Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) posted a modest gain of 0.09% on Thursday, closing near $529 after rebounding from earlier lows. The move comes as the broader technology sector showed a gentle pullback, with the Nasdaq down 0.48% and the S&P 500 slipping 0.20%.
Technical analysis reveals that the stock is still perched above its key moving averages, sitting 4.4% above the 20-day simple moving average of $508.55 and a solid 22.4% above the 200-day SMA of $433.80. A bullish “golden cross” formed in August, reinforcing the uptrend, yet the relative strength index (RSI) now reads 70.76, a level that traditionally signals overbought conditions and could foreshadow a short-term consolidation.
EU antitrust probe targets Microsoft’s gaming portfolio
Italy’s competition authority, acting on behalf of an EU-wide consumer-protection network, launched an investigation on Thursday into several Microsoft-owned game studios, most notably Activision Blizzard. The focus is on the use of in-game virtual currencies and whether complex conversion mechanisms hide the true cost of digital purchases, potentially breaching EU rules that safeguard minors.
The inquiry is being coordinated with regulators in Norway and Denmark, and follows a broader EU effort that recently examined nine major gaming firms, including Riot Games and Ubisoft. While the probe does not yet allege wrongdoing, the scrutiny could lead to fines or mandatory changes to how virtual goods are priced and marketed across the bloc.
Nvidia partnership fuels new AI-focused hardware
In parallel with the regulatory headlines, Microsoft unveiled a fresh line of AI-enabled devices powered by Nvidia’s RTX Spark chip. The Surface Laptop Ultra, starting at $2,599, will ship on October 16 and promises on-device execution of large language models, reducing reliance on cloud resources. A developer-oriented Surface RTX Spark Dev Box, priced from $5,999, is slated for November delivery.
These releases place Microsoft alongside Dell, HP, and Lenovo, all of which are rolling out Nvidia-accelerated PCs. The collaboration bolsters Microsoft’s artificial intelligence strategy, complementing Azure’s cloud AI services and the recently announced Microsoft 365 Copilot suite.
Earnings outlook and analyst expectations
Microsoft is set to report its next quarterly results on October 28. Consensus forecasts anticipate earnings of $4.73 per share—up from $4.13 a year earlier—and revenue of $90.64 billion, reflecting a 16% year-over-year increase. Analyst sentiment remains bullish, with a median price target of $578.32; recent upgrades from Evercore ISI ($635), Scotiabank ($615), and Wells Fargo ($725) signal confidence in the company’s growth trajectory.
Despite a strong Benzinga Edge profile—scoring 96.9 for Growth, 89.5 for Momentum, and 86.7 for Quality—the valuation metric remains lofty. A forward earnings multiple of 27× sits well above the software industry average of 16×, indicating that the market has priced in substantial AI and cloud upside. Any slowdown in Azure adoption or unexpected costs from the EU investigation could pressure the stock.
