Table of Contents:
Introduction to interest rates and mortgages
2024 promises to be a crucial year for the mortgage market in Italy, with the focus on the next meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) scheduled for December 12. Analysts predict a possible cut in interest rates by 25 basis points, which could have a significant impact on variable mortgage rates. According to Facile.it estimates, such a reduction would lead to a reduction in the monthly installment of a standard variable mortgage by about 18 euros, from 682 euros to 664
euros.
The current environment and market trends
Over the past twelve months, the mortgage market has experienced a phase of change. Starting in June 2023, the ECB began to reduce rates, offering families a breath of fresh air with variable rate loans. Since the beginning of 2024, the installment of a standard mortgage has fallen by 66 euros, from 748 euros to 682 euros, but it is still far from the values at the beginning of 2022, when it stood at only 456 euros. This scenario has prompted many to consider subrogating the mortgage, moving from variable to fixed rates to obtain significant savings
.
Mortgage subrogation: advantages and opportunities
Mortgage subrogation has become a popular strategy for Italian families. Currently, by subrogating a standard variable mortgage, you could go from an installment of 683 euros to a fixed installment of 565 euros, with savings of almost 120 euros per month. This economic advantage is particularly attractive, especially considering that variable rates, although falling, remain less competitive compared to fixed rates. The best fixed rate deals available online start at a TAN of 2.49%, while variable rates start at a TAN of 3.68%
.
Forecasts for 2025 and the trend in rates
Looking to the future, the forecasts for 2025 indicate a continuation of the downward trend in variable rates, especially in the first half of the year. According to simulations based on Euribor Futures, the 3-month Euribor is expected to fall below 2% by June 2025. If these expectations materialize, the standard mortgage payment could fall further to 612 euros, approaching 600 euros by December 2025. This would represent an overall drop of about 80 euros compared to the current installments
.
Conclusions and final considerations
In summary, 2024 is expected to be a year of opportunities for Italian families who wish to optimize their mortgages. With falling interest rates and the possibility of subrogating mortgages, it’s critical for consumers to stay informed and evaluate the best options available on the market. The current situation offers a favorable environment for those looking to save on monthly installments and improve their financial situation.
