The conversation recorded live at the ASU+GSV Summit brings a clear framework for assessing higher education: college generally increases lifetime earnings, but not always. Research from economist Preston Cooper — discussed with host Robert Farrington — shows that roughly 20% to 30% of students who start a bachelor’s program do not see a positive financial return. That headline number compresses several different failures into a simple statement: some paths through higher education are profitable, others are not. The challenge for families and applicants is to translate that research into concrete steps during admissions season, financial planning, and program selection.
Cooper’s shorthand is useful because it points directly to decisions students can influence. The three failure modes are: paying too much for a program, failing to finish, or choosing a field with weak labor-market demand. Each of those risks is measurable and, in many cases, avoidable. The rest of this article adapts Cooper’s analysis into practical guidance: how to screen schools using public data, where graduate credentials still boost earnings, and how to prepare for labor-market uncertainty driven by technological change like artificial intelligence.
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Why some bachelor’s degrees fail to deliver
When a bachelor’s degree does not pay off, it almost always does so because one or more of three factors were misjudged. First, the sticker price matters: a degree that pays off at $50,000 may not at $150,000. Second, completion is essential — paying tuition without earning the credential erases the primary return. Third, field-of-study outcomes vary widely: majors tied to strong demand such as engineering or nursing typically outperform those with thin job markets like some fine arts or certain humanities tracks. Families should map every school and program back to these three checks before committing tuition, time, and potential debt.
Completion rate as the single biggest lever
Completion is the clearest determinant of whether an investment in a bachelor’s degree pays back. Only about 60% to 70% of students at four-year institutions complete a degree within six years, meaning roughly 30% to 40% do not. That group often carries tuition or loans without the credential that unlocks higher wages. Two practical questions emerge: does the school have a strong track record of graduating students, and is the applicant ready to finish the program academically? Use the Department of Education’s College Scorecard to check six-year graduation rates, typical earnings by program, and net cost. If freshman year looks marginal financially, senior year is usually harder because aid often declines and prices accumulate.
Graduate school and credential traps
Graduate degrees follow a similar logic but with different contours. Programs that deliver precise, high-paying occupational training — medicine, dentistry, law in many cases — tend to produce reliable returns because of strong labor-market demand and high postgrad salaries. By contrast, many master’s programs and even some MBA tracks are a mixed bet: some programs produce outsized returns while many more merely break even or go negative once tuition and forgone earnings are included. A useful rule is this: if the program plainly trains you for a specific high-paid role, the return on investment is often positive; if it primarily signals breadth or personal enrichment, treat the ROI as uncertain.
The state-licensing trap and a practical workaround
In certain careers, state licensing rules create a forced purchase of a low-return graduate credential — teaching is the clearest example. Where a master’s is required or rewarded through pay scales but adds little measurable skill, students end up paying for a credential rather than education. Cooper’s practical advice is to minimize cost and debt: stay in-state, choose public institutions, and pursue the cheapest accredited path to satisfy licensing requirements. He cites his own decision to earn a graduate degree at George Mason University rather than paying more for programs that offered similar outcomes, demonstrating how cost-conscious choices can flip the math.
AI, computer science, and planning for uncertainty
Families often ask whether current labor-market data applies to students who will graduate several years from now, particularly in fields affected by artificial intelligence. Early-career unemployment for computer science majors has climbed to around 7%, which is higher than the aggregate for recent graduates, yet those who secure jobs still report mid-20s salaries near $90,000. The takeaway is nuanced: the bottom of the market has softened, but the overall payoff for successful entrants remains substantial. Because nobody can predict the future precisely, the right posture is risk-aware rather than fatalistic.
Practical steps for families and applicants
Turn the research into actions: compare programs with the College Scorecard, prioritize schools with high completion rates, and keep total costs and expected postgraduation salaries in view. If you are considering an uncertain graduate credential like an MBA, explore employer tuition reimbursement to avoid paying out of pocket, a move that often transforms marginal programs into worthwhile investments. Finally, choose a degree that leaves room to pivot—diverse coursework, low Student loan burdens, and realistic completion plans preserve optionality in a fast-changing job market.