The forecasts of UBS and Goldman Sachs
According to recent analysis by UBS Group, the price of gold could rise to 2,900 dollars an ounce by the end of next year. This forecast aligns with Goldman Sachs’ expectations, which expects a similar increase. Central banks are increasing their gold reserves, a key factor underpinning this positive forecast. UBS analysts warn, however, that there could be a period of consolidation due to the strengthening of the dollar and concerns regarding a possible increase in interest rates in the United States
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Factors affecting the gold market
Despite the uncertainties, the price of gold is expected to recover, with a further increase to 2,950 dollars an ounce by the end of 2026. Analysts point out that price support comes from continuous strategic investments in gold and purchases by the official sector. This is happening in a context of high macroeconomic volatility and persistent geopolitical risks. In 2024, gold has already proven to be one of the best-performing assets, reaching successive records before a post-election decline in the United States
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The current market environment
Currently, spot gold is trading around 2,630 dollars an ounce, an increase of 28% this year. Goldman Sachs’ forecasts indicate that the precious metal could reach 3,000 dollars an ounce by the end of next year, thanks to growing demand from central banks and flows to exchange-traded funds. UBS highlights that monetary authorities will continue to buy physical gold to diversify their reserves, especially in a context of geopolitical risks and sanctions. Many central bank gold reserves remain relatively small compared to total assets, suggesting growth potential for the gold market
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