Table of Contents:
Global growth forecasts
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently updated its economic forecasts, highlighting global growth that stands at 3.3% for 2025. This represents an improvement over the previous estimate of 3.2% in October. Although this growth aligns with the projections for 2024 and 2023, it is important to note that it remains below the historical average of 3.7% recorded between 2000 and 2019. This information is contained in the World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, which provides a detailed overview of global economic dynamics
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The slowdown in inflation
A key aspect of the report concerns the trajectory of inflation, which shows signs of a slowdown. Inflation is expected to fall to 4.2% this year, compared to 5.7% in 2024, and will reach 3.5% by 2026. This drop in inflation is seen as a positive factor for central banks, since it allows for a normalization of monetary policies, bringing interest rates back in line with established objectives. The revisions to the inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were reduced by 0.1 percentage points compared to previous estimates, suggesting a
more favorable economic environment.
Impact of tourism in Europe
In 2024, the tourism sector in Europe is expected to reach an historic peak, with almost 3 billion overnight stays, surpassing the 2023 record. However, not all nations benefit from this trend. France, for example, does not seem to benefit from the effect of the Olympics, recording a drop in the number of tourists. In contrast, Spain has seen a significant increase, despite the protests against overtourism. According to Eurostat data, since 2009, tourism in Europe has increased by 50%, even if domestic tourism has shown signs of slowing down
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Economic situation in the Eurozone and Japan
In the Eurozone, inflation rose, as confirmed by Eurostat, with consumer prices increasing by 2.4% year-on-year and core inflation growing by 2.7%. These data are indicative of persistent inflationary pressure, which could influence central bank decisions. Meanwhile, the Tokyo Stock Exchange closed lower before Donald Trump took office as president of the United States, with the Nikkei index down 0.31%. The strengthening of the yen and the expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) had a negative impact on the market, affecting the shares of exporting companies
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