The new forecasts of the International Monetary Fund
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently updated its economic forecasts, highlighting global growth that stands at 3.3% for 2025. This estimate represents an increase from the 3.2% expected in October and aligns with the projections for 2024 and 2023. However, it is important to note that this growth remains below the historical average of 3.7% recorded between 2000 and 2019, suggesting that the global economic recovery may be slower than expected
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Analysis of inflation and monetary policies
A crucial aspect of the IMF report is the trajectory of inflation, which shows signs of a slowdown. Inflation is expected to fall to 4.2% this year, compared to 5.7% in 2024, with a further decline expected to 3.5% by 2026. This drop in inflation represents a positive factor for central banks, since it allows for a normalization of monetary policies, bringing interest rates back in line with the set objectives. The revisions to the inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were reduced by 0.1 percentage points compared to previous estimates, indicating greater
economic stability.
Implications for the global economy
The IMF forecasts provide a detailed view of the world’s economic dynamics. Economic growth, although moderate, is a sign of resilience in a global environment characterized by uncertainties. More accommodative monetary policies, deriving from the drop in inflation, could stimulate investment and consumption, contributing to a more robust recovery. However, it is essential to carefully monitor the economic developments and fiscal policies adopted by the various countries, as they could significantly influence future forecasts
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