Table of Contents:
Introduction to European markets
The European stock exchanges start the week with a cautious attitude, in a context characterized by events of great importance. At Piazza Affari, the Ftse Mib moves around parity, highlighting the uncertainty that pervades the markets. In this scenario, Saipem stands out with an increase of +1.6%, while Stm recorded a decrease of -2.2%. The week is marked by crucial events, including the highly anticipated presidential elections in the United States,
scheduled for November 5.
The US presidential elections and their impact
The elections in the United States represent a decisive moment not only for American politics, but also for global markets. Donald Trump’s expectations of victory seem to be diminishing, contributing to a climate of uncertainty. Investors are closely watching the trend of the vote, aware that an unexpected result could influence economic and monetary decisions worldwide. The week following the elections, on November 6 and 7, the penultimate Federal Reserve meeting for 2024 will also take place, where a possible cut in interest rates by 25 basis points is expected
.
Central bank decisions and upcoming quarterly reports
In addition to the elections, the Bank of England will also meet on Thursday, with the expectation of a reduction in the cost of money by 0.25%. These decisions are expected with great attention, as they could affect the bond market and currencies. Meanwhile, the quarterly season is fading in the United States, while in Europe and Piazza Affari it is intensifying, with the expectation of the results of Unicredit and Eni. These financial reports could provide additional indications on the economic health of companies and on market trends.
Analysis of macroeconomic data
Another important fact is the US ISM services index, due out tomorrow, which will provide more information on the economic situation. Recent employment data showed the lowest number of hires since 2020, with an unemployment rate stable at 4.1%. However, it’s important to note that these numbers were influenced by extraordinary events, such as hurricanes and the Boeing strike. On the bond front, the Btp-Bund spread remains stable at about 126 basis points, with the Italian 10-year yield at 3.68% and that of the German benchmark at 2.42%
.
Commodities and currencies: a complex picture
In the commodity market, Brent oil remains above 74 dollars per barrel, supported by the decision of OPEC+ to postpone the removal of supply cuts. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, in particular between Iran and Israel, continue to influence markets. Gold, on the other hand, showed a retracement, falling to around 2,736 dollars an ounce. In the currency market, the euro/dollar exchange rate is close to 1.09, while the dollar/yen falls to 152
, reflecting current global dynamics.
