Global GDP growth projections
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that global GDP will grow by 3.0% in 2025, a slight increase from the 2.8% recorded in 2024. This growth is primarily driven by recovery in emerging markets and a rebound in consumer spending across advanced economies.
Inflation rates and central bank policies
Inflation rates are expected to stabilize around 2.5% globally, following a peak of 7.0% in mid-2023. Central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, are projected to maintain interest rates at 4.5% and 3.0%, respectively, as they aim to balance economic growth with inflation control.
Unemployment rates and labor market dynamics
The global unemployment rate is forecasted to hover around 5.2% in 2025, reflecting ongoing shifts towards automation and digitalization. Sectors such as technology and renewable energy are anticipated to see significant job creation, while traditional industries may face challenges.
Trade volumes and international relations
World trade volumes are expected to increase by 4.0% in 2025, bolstered by recovery in supply chains and renewed trade agreements. Key regions such as Asia-Pacific are likely to lead this growth, significantly impacting global trade dynamics.
Commodity prices and market volatility
Commodity prices are projected to stabilize, with oil prices averaging around $70 per barrel and natural gas prices at approximately $3.50 per MMBtu. However, geopolitical tensions could introduce volatility, affecting supply and demand.