The Italian economic context in 2025
In 2025, Italy is preparing for GDP growth of 0.7%, a figure that exceeds the forecasts of France and Germany. This improvement is mainly supported by domestic consumption and the stability of the labor market. However, the country faces significant challenges, including geopolitical risks, inflation and trade tensions, which could negatively affect the economic recovery
.
The role of the PNRR and investments
The National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR) will play a crucial role in guiding investments in Italy. The measures planned by the government, which amount to 28 billion euros, focus on reducing the tax wedge and supporting lower incomes. Fiscal discipline remains a key element in ensuring the sustainability of public debt, with the objective of reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio by at least 1% per year. However, public finance has limited room to stimulate growth, making a credible adjustment path essential to maintain market confidence
.
Driving sectors and future risks
The service sector, in particular tourism, is set to be one of the main drivers of economic growth in 2025. Despite inflationary pressures, the resilience of the labor market and the increase in real wages could favor a recovery of household purchasing power. However, significant risks remain, such as the weakness of the economy in key markets such as France and Germany and the possibility of new trade tariffs from the United States. Italy’s trade surplus vis-a-vis the United States exposes it to potential protectionist measures, making the ability of Italian companies to improve their competitiveness crucial
.