Table of Contents:
Introduction to economic forecasting
As the year draws to a close, financial analysts are beginning to outline their expectations for the future. Among the various analyses, that of Goldman Sachs stands out for its audacity, predicting a significant increase in the S&P 500 index by the end of 2025. According to estimates, the index could reach 6500 points, representing an increase of 11% compared to
current levels.
S&P 500 growth expectations
Goldman Sachs bases its forecasts on continued economic expansion in the United States, with an estimated profit growth of 11% in 2025 and 7% in 2026. Investment banking experts focus in particular on the so-called “Magnificent Seven”: Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla. These stocks, according to analyses, will exceed the S&P 500 by about 7 percentage points, marking a decline compared to the wider margins
of previous years.
Investment strategies for 2025
For next year, experts suggest focusing on securities that could benefit from mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the United States, predicting a 25% increase in the number of completed mergers. In addition, it is advisable to consider securities related to small and medium-sized businesses, as an increase in optimism is expected among entrepreneurs. Another sector to monitor is that of companies that can monetize artificial intelligence, a rapidly expanding field
.
Inflation and emerging markets
Recently, the core CPI index in the United States showed an increase of 0.28%, in line with expectations. However, retail sales were lower than expected, suggesting some caution. The US elections influenced market expectations, leading to a more optimistic view of economic growth, but also to concerns about a stronger dollar and increased trade tariffs, which could complicate the situation for emerging markets
in 2025.
Prospects for Europe
As far as Europe is concerned, Goldman Sachs experts expect positive but low returns for the STOXX Europe 600 index, with an estimated profit growth of between 3% and 4% for 2025 and 2026. Forecasts indicate continued dis-inflation in the euro area, with moderate economic growth and interest rates lower than current levels. In this context, defensive companies, such as those in the real estate and telecommunications sectors, could represent an attractive option for investors
.
