According to ISTAT forecasts, by 2051 the retirement age in Italy could be lowered to 70 years. This alarm was raised by the President of ISTAT, Francesco Maria Chelli, during a hearing on the Medium-Term Structural Budget Plan. The increase in life expectancy and the continuous decline in the active population are the main factors that could lead to this change.
In this article, we analyze the ISTAT estimates, the reason for this possible increase in the retirement age and what can be expected in the future.
The Istat Alarm: Retirement at 70 years old in 2051
During the hearing on October 7, 2024, the President of ISTAT, Francesco Maria Chelli, highlighted how the Italian social security system is at risk due to demographic decline and the aging of the population. The retirement age, currently set at 67, could reach 70 by 2051
.
The increase in life expectancy, combined with the decrease in births, is creating an increasingly marked imbalance between retirees and active workers. This phenomenon jeopardizes the sustainability of the pension system, leading to an inevitable increase in the age to be able to access an old-age
pension.
Istat Data and Projections for the Future
According to ISTAT estimates, the Italian population could fall from the current 59 million to 54.8 million by 2050. At the same time, the number of older people will increase significantly: by 2031, those over 65 will represent 27.7% of the population, while in 2051
this percentage could rise to 34.5%.
The retirement age will increase progressively over the next few decades. Currently set at 67 years, by 2027 it could rise to 67 years and three months, up to 69 years and six months by 2051. This evolution is linked to the increase in life expectancy, which causes a constant adjustment of the retirement age
.
The Implications on the Social Security System
The demographic decline and the increase in life expectancy pose a significant challenge for the Italian pension system. With an increasing number of retirees and a reduced number of active taxpayers, the system risks becoming unsustainable. Raising the retirement age may not be sufficient to ensure the stability of the system
.
According to ISTAT, a review of social security policies is urgent, starting with the next pension reform scheduled for 2025. Without structural interventions, the risk is that the system will no longer be able to guarantee adequate pensions for future generations
.
The Pension Reform of 2025
In light of these projections, the Italian Government is working on a reform of the pension system that could come into force as early as 2025. The reform aims to make the social security system more sustainable, through a series of measures that include strengthening family welfare and incentives for birth rates. The objective is to balance the increase in the number of retirees with greater support for families and a policy of demographic growth
.
The Future of Pensions in Italy
The increase in the retirement age is one of the consequences of the current Italian demographic scenario. Istat has clarified that, if no action is taken, the retirement age could reach 70 years by 2051. This scenario raises numerous questions about the future of the social security system and the solutions necessary to ensure
its sustainability.