Introduction to the decline of orders
In September, the United States recorded a 0.8% decline in durable goods orders. This figure was announced in the preliminary reading and surprised many analysts, as they expected a smaller decline, around -1% according to the Bloomberg consensus. The decline in durable goods orders is an important indicator of economic health, as it reflects the confidence of companies and consumers in future economic growth
.
The causes of flexion
The reasons for this decline may be multiple. First, rising interest rates have made it more expensive for companies to finance, leading to a reduction in investment in durable goods. In addition, disruptions in supply chains, which continue to affect different sectors, may have contributed to this decrease. Finally, global economic uncertainty, accentuated by geopolitical events and the pandemic, has made companies more cautious in their
purchasing decisions.
Implications for the US economy
The decline in durable goods orders could have significant repercussions on the US economy. A prolonged decline could indicate a contraction in production and, consequently, an increase in unemployment. However, it is important to note that this data is only an indicator and should not be interpreted in isolation. Economists will continue to monitor other economic indicators to get a clearer picture of the situation. For example, Germany’s economic outlook, which has shown signs of improvement, could positively influence global economic dynamics.