Copper’s roller-coaster run this winter has exposed how quickly a few policy moves, seasonal shifts and currency swings can upend global metals markets. After an early spike on January 29, copper steadied briefly before surging again in late February — driven by a mix of U.S. tariff rulings, Chinese restocking after the Lunar New Year and a softer U.S. dollar. At the same time, manganese has quietly returned to center stage, its strategic role in steelmaking and battery chemistry attracting renewed scrutiny.
What moved markets
– Tariff shock: A Supreme Court decision in late February cleared the way for the administration to reintroduce temporary levies. The White House acted fast, reinstating and then raising duties — at one point to 15 percent — before those measures would need congressional approval. Traders immediately repriced the risk of higher landed costs and disrupted trade flows.
– Seasonal restocking: China’s customary Lunar New Year slowdown reduced copper offtake and drew down some warehouse stocks. Once factories and builders restarted, restocking accelerated, intensifying demand and reversing the holiday lull.
– Currency effect: A weaker U.S. dollar amplified the rally. Dollar‑priced metals become cheaper for overseas buyers when the greenback softens, encouraging physical buying and speculative positioning across London, Shanghai and Asian markets.
How traders and industry reacted
Volatility rose sharply. Short-term hedging got pricier and positioning became more cautious as market participants tried to price two competing scenarios: tariffs that might lower duties on upstream ore and wire (supporting manufacturing) versus renewed levies on refined products that would raise import costs for downstream users. Shipping desks and exchanges reported frantic reworking of schedules and inventories as traders balanced those conflicting signals.
The manganese angle
Beyond copper, manganese is drawing attention for different reasons. Long essential to steel as a deoxidizer and alloying agent, manganese is now increasingly used in some lithium‑ion and nickel‑metal battery chemistries. Because production is concentrated in a handful of countries and the U.S. imports most of its supply, manganese has been flagged as a critical mineral. A sustained move into higher‑manganese battery designs — plus steady steel demand — could tighten markets and lift premiums, creating another potential supply‑risk chokepoint.
Practical consequences
– For traders and hedgers: expect wider intraday swings and higher carrying costs while uncertainty persists.
– For industrial buyers: input-costs are less predictable, complicating procurement and margin planning.
– For policymakers and ports: tariff ambiguity and uneven trade flows require closer monitoring of incoming shipments and inventories to avoid logistical bottlenecks.
What to watch next
Near-term direction will hinge on three things: any further tariff clarifications or extensions from Washington, fresh Chinese purchasing and inventory data, and currency trends. Officials’ announcements and shipping and warehouse reports are likely to move prices quickly, so market participants are watching those signals closely. The result: heightened volatility, repriced supply risks and renewed attention to how trade policy can ripple through commodity markets. Stay tuned for further tariff guidance and Beijing’s industrial indicators — they’ll probably decide the next leg of the story.
