Table of Contents:
The current inflation environment
Inflation in Italy showed signs of growth, exceeding 1% on an annual basis in November and probably also in December. According to ConfCommercio, this increase is attributable to a base effect and should not cause concern. However, the persistence of historically low values has not alleviated household fears, negatively affecting the recovery of consumption. Families, in fact, continue to show some caution, reflecting an uncertain economic situation
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Analysis of consumption and trends
According to data provided by ConfCommercio, the ConfCommercio Consumption Indicator (ICC) registered a negative change of 0.5% in October, with a modest trend growth of 0.4%. Among the few growing sectors, goods and services for communication (+2.8%) and personal care (+2.3%) stand out. Air transport (+10.2%) and household appliances (+4.4%) also showed positive signs. However, spending on clothing and footwear continues to decline, highlighting a trend towards savings on the part of consumers
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Outlook for the month of December and beyond
Expectations for the month of December remain moderate, with the hope that an increase in real incomes may translate into an increase in consumption. However, Black Friday will be a crucial test to assess whether these expectations will materialize. As far as GDP is concerned, ConfCommercio expects a trend increase of 0.4% for the first nine months of 2024, with an expected end of the year at +0.6%. This figure, although positive, is far from the 1% target, suggesting that economic growth is still fragile
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Implications for the tourism and industrial sector
The tourism sector showed signs of weakness, with a moderately negative change in tourist attendance in September compared to the same month of 2023. The Italian component recorded a significant decline of about 4%. Even industrial production continues to struggle, highlighting a stagnation that could further influence consumption. Companies face a significant challenge to stimulate demand and catch up in a complex economic environment.
