Table of Contents:
The new GDP growth estimates
The Bank of Italy recently released a significant update to its economic forecasts for the current year, estimating GDP growth of 0.5%. This review represents an important step forward compared to previous expectations and aligns with the indications provided by the Minister of Economy, Giancarlo Giorgetti. The expected growth takes into account changes in the number of working days compared to 2023, a crucial factor for evaluating economic performance
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Projections for the four-year period 2024-2027
The economic projections for the four-year period 2024-2027, drawn up as part of the coordinated exercise of the Eurosystem, indicate an acceleration of growth at an average rate of 1.1% per year.
This growth will be supported by a number of economic factors, including labor market trends and investments in infrastructure. It is crucial to closely monitor these factors in the coming years to ensure sustainable and lasting growth
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Inflation and future impacts
As far as inflation is concerned, the Bank of Italy expects an increase of 1.1% in 2024, with further increases to 1.5% in the following two years and to 2% in 2027. This increase will be mainly due to the reduction of the negative impact of the energy component and to the effects of the ETS2 regulation on CO2 emissions, which will come into force in 2027. It is important to note how environmental policies can influence price trends and, consequently, the economic life of the country.
Price trends and international markets
In November, import-export prices in the United States showed an increase, with import prices growing by 0.1% compared to the previous month and an annual increase of 1.3%.
Export prices, on the other hand, maintained a zero change, recording an increase of 0.8% year-on-year, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. These data are indicative of an evolving global market, which may also have repercussions on the
Italian economy.
Stock market situation and local impacts
The Hong Kong Stock Exchange closed sharply, with the Hang Seng Index recording a decrease of 2.1%, dragged down by the real estate and consumer goods sectors. Mainland Chinese stock exchanges also suffered similar losses, highlighting some instability in Asian markets. This situation could influence investment decisions in Italy and Europe, making it necessary to constantly monitor international dynamics.
Inflation in Spain and the European context
Inflation in Spain accelerated in November 2024, with the consumer price index increasing by 0.2% on a monthly basis and growing by 2.4% on an annual basis. These data, confirmed by the Spanish statistics office INE, show an acceleration compared to the previous month and may have repercussions on the economic policies of other European countries, including Italy. It is essential that Italian authorities consider these developments when formulating their economic strategies
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