Table of Contents:
The new GDP estimates
The Bank of Italy recently released a significant update to its economic forecasts for the current year, showing GDP growth of 0.5%. This figure is particularly relevant because it takes into account changes in the number of working days compared to 2023, an aspect that can significantly influence economic performance. The upward revision of expectations represents a positive sign for the Italian economy, in line with the indications provided by the Minister of Economy, Giancarlo Giorgetti
.
Projections for the four-year period 2024-2027
The economic projections for the four-year period 2024-2027, drawn up as part of the coordinated exercise of the Eurosystem, indicate an acceleration of growth at an average rate of 1.1% per year.
This growth will be supported by a number of economic factors, including increased domestic demand and the implementation of more favorable fiscal policies. Bank of Italy analysts will closely monitor these factors in the coming years to ensure that forecasts remain realistic
and attainable.
Inflation and growth factors
As far as inflation is concerned, the Bank of Italy expects an increase of 1.1% in 2024, with further increases to 1.5% in the following two years and to 2% in 2027. This increase is mainly attributable to the reduction of the negative impact of the energy component and to the effects of the ETS2 regulation on CO2 emissions, which will come into force in 2027. It is crucial that monetary and fiscal policies are adequate to address these inflationary challenges and ensure sustainable growth
.
Impact on international markets
In a global context, recent data show that in November, import-export prices in the United States registered an increase, with import prices growing by 0.1% compared to the previous month and an annual increase of 1.3%. Export prices, on the other hand, maintained a zero change, recording an increase of 0.8% on an annual basis. These data, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, highlight the importance of monitoring international dynamics, since they can directly influence the Italian economy and its growth forecasts
.
