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Global GDP growth forecast: 3.5% in 2026
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a global GDP growth of 3.5% for 2026, reflecting a modest increase from 3.3% in 2025. This growth is primarily attributed to a recovery in emerging markets, particularly in Asia. Notably, countries such as India and Vietnam are expected to lead with growth rates exceeding 6%.
Inflation rates: Stabilizing at 4.1%
Global inflation rates are anticipated to stabilize around 4.1%, down from 5.2% in 2025.
Central banks, especially in developed nations, are likely to maintain interest rates to control inflation while fostering economic growth.
Unemployment rates: Declining to 5.2%
Global unemployment rates are projected to decline to 5.2%, with notable improvements in labor markets across Europe and North America. The ongoing recovery from the pandemic is facilitating job creation, particularly within technology and renewable energy sectors.
Commodity prices: Expected fluctuations
Commodity prices are expected to experience fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions. The price of oil is projected to average around $75 per barrel, while gold prices may hover around $1,800 per ounce.
Key risks and variables
The global economy confronts several key risks, including potential geopolitical conflicts, the impacts of climate change, and shifts in consumer behavior. The interplay of these factors could significantly influence economic stability and growth trajectories in 2026.
