The current economic environment
In the third quarter of 2024, Italy showed an economic trend that can be defined as stationary. According to data provided by ISTAT, gross domestic product (GDP), expressed in values linked to the reference year 2020, registered an increase of 0.4% compared to the same period of the previous year. This figure, although positive, is lower than consensus expectations, which predicted a growth of 0.7%
.
The stability of Italian GDP is a sign of resilience in a global economic environment characterized by uncertainties. The growth acquired already recorded in the second quarter of the year therefore remains unchanged, suggesting that the Italian economy is facing significant challenges but manages
to maintain a balance.
Growing and shrinking sectors
A more detailed analysis of the economic sectors reveals a complex picture. The tertiary sector showed growth, contributing positively to GDP. However, the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector contracted slightly, while the industry experienced a sharp reduction. These data highlight how the Italian economy is going through a phase of transformation, with the service sector continuing to gain ground compared to traditional sectors
.
On the demand side, there is a positive contribution of domestic demand, which has supported GDP growth. However, the net foreign component had a negative impact, suggesting that exports may not be sufficient to offset imports in
an environment of global uncertainty.
Future Prospects and Implications
The prospects for the future of the Italian economy remain uncertain. The steadiness of GDP in the third quarter of 2024 could indicate that Italy is facing a phase of stagnation, with potential risks of a slowdown. Analysts suggest that it is essential to closely monitor economic data in the coming months to better understand the evolution of the situation
.
In addition, the performance of European stock exchanges, with a declining start for Piazza Affari, could reflect investor concerns regarding economic growth. The situation of Campari, which recorded below-expected results, is an example of how companies are facing significant challenges in
this economic environment.