The UK’s decision to leave the European Union, a momentous event that occurred a decade ago, has left an indelible mark on the nation’s political and economic landscape. The journey since the 2016 referendum has been tumultuous, marked by political instability, economic challenges, and shifting alliances. As the country reflects on this significant milestone, the question of its future relationship with Europe remains as pressing as ever.
The past decade has seen seven different prime ministers at the helm, each grappling with the complexities of Brexit. The latest leader, Sir Keir Starmer, has recently stepped down, leaving the UK in a state of political flux once again. The debate over the extent to which the UK should align itself with Brussels economically is back on the domestic political agenda, with the Labour government seeking to reset relations with the EU.
The UK’s Political Rollercoaster
The political volatility in the UK has been a significant factor in the ongoing negotiations with the EU. Brussels assumes that the talks will continue under Starmer’s successor, although the planned summit for late July is under review. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator during the Brexit talks and now a prominent figure in French politics, emphasizes the need for the EU to engage with whatever leadership the UK presents.
Barnier’s perspective is rooted in his experience of dealing with four different UK negotiators during the Brexit talks. He acknowledges the instability but stresses the EU’s commitment to working through it. The EU’s stance remains firm on the principle of the single market, which Barnier describes as the jewel in the EU crown. He argues that the EU cannot compromise this asset to accommodate special deals with the UK, especially given the current geopolitical challenges.
The Economic Impact of Brexit
The economic fallout from Brexit has been significant, with businesses facing increased costs and complexities in trade with the EU. Simon Boyd, managing director of REIDSteel, and Mike Hawes, head of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, represent different perspectives on Brexit’s impact. Despite their differing views during the referendum, both now express frustration with the outcomes.
Boyd acknowledges that Brexit has not delivered on all its promises but believes it is still delivering, albeit slowly. He attributes the lackluster results to political indecision and unforeseen challenges like the COVID-19 pandemic and wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Economists, however, point to fundamental issues arising from the UK’s departure from the European single market, which has led to a loss of wealth and prosperity.
The Scottish Perspective
The Brexit vote has also significantly altered Scotland’s political landscape. The decision to leave the EU bolstered support for Scottish independence, which has reached near-record levels. Kezia Dugdale, former leader of Scottish Labour, recalls feeling devastated by the Brexit result and believes it created a sense of betrayal among Scots, who overwhelmingly voted to remain in the EU.
Dugdale argues that the Brexit vote sustained support for independence, which might otherwise have waned. However, the issue’s salience has faded over the past decade due to other political crises and economic concerns. Ruth Davidson, former leader of the Scottish Conservatives, believes that the UK government’s handling of Brexit and the COVID pandemic has had a less significant impact on support for independence than initially feared.
The economic decline and fears about public services now dominate the Scottish political agenda. Brexit’s impact on the UK’s economy is evident, with estimates suggesting significant lost revenue and increased costs for consumers. Despite efforts by the SNP to make Scottish independence and rejoining the EU central to recent elections, these issues have not delivered the desired electoral outcomes.
